U.S. Presidential Elections 2024: Who wins Trump or Kamala?

As U.S. presidential election results started to unfold, tensions run high across the globe. Who will triumph the White House, Trump or Kamala? The United States’ influence stretches far beyond its borders, making this election a matter of worldwide interest. Among the international communities observing closely, Pakistan’s interest in this year’s election stands out. With much of the Pakistani populace believing that a Trump victory could shift U.S.-Pakistan dynamics in favor of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, the stakes are high on both sides of the globe.

Let’s delve into the current state of the election, examining where each candidate stands in the race. We’ll explore the factors that could lead to a historic Kamala Harris presidency or see Donald Trump return to power as the 47th president.

The State of Polling and Counting in the U.S. Election

As voting wraps up across the country, counting has already started in several states. In a few states like California and Alaska, voting hours extend later into the night. These final ballots may prove decisive.

The electoral process is centered on 538 electoral votes distributed across U.S. states based on population. A candidate must secure at least 270 of these votes to win the presidency. As the results trickle in, the race remains too close to call, with Harris and Trump nearly neck-and-neck in electoral projections. The fate of the election may ultimately rest in the hands of a few swing states.

Pakistan’s Interest

A Hope for Imran Khan’s Political Relief

For the first time, Pakistanis are watching an American election with such intensity. Millions of Pakistanis hold the belief that a Trump victory could provide political relief to Imran Khan. Under the current Pakistani administration, Imran Khan has faced legal challenges and political isolation. The establishment’s firm hold on power has led many Pakistanis to look outside their borders for potential change.

Trump’s rhetoric and foreign policy approach, notably critical of the Biden administration, resonate with those who support Imran Khan. In Trump, some see an ally willing to disrupt established norms. The hope is that a Trump administration might take a different stance toward Pakistan, possibly alleviating the pressures on Khan and his party, Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).

Presidential Polls Swing States: The Decisive Factor in the Election

In every U.S. election, a few swing states play a crucial role in deciding the outcome. These states, characterized by historically unpredictable voting patterns, hold significant sway with their electoral votes. This year, the seven swing states to watch are:

• Wisconsin: 10 electoral votes
• Michigan: 15 electoral votes
• Pennsylvania: 19 electoral votes
• North Carolina: 16 electoral votes
• Georgia: 16 electoral votes
• Arizona: 11 electoral votes
• Nevada: 6 electoral votes

Each of these states represents a pivotal opportunity for both candidates. For instance, Pennsylvania, with its 19 votes, could single-handedly shift the election’s momentum. In these states, close races are common, with candidates often separated by less than a percentage point. Historically, these areas have swung back and forth, making them highly sought-after.

Understanding the Electoral Map: The Importance of Colors and Numbers

Analyzing the electoral map reveals insights into party strongholds and contested regions. The map shows five key colors:

1. Dark Blue: Democratic strongholds.
2. Light Blue: Leaning Democratic.
3. Red: Republican strongholds.
4. Orange (Lean Republican): Favoring Trump but with notable Democratic support.
5. Yellow: Swing states, essential to deciding the election.

Most of the central U.S. states appear red, indicating strong Republican support. However, these states often carry fewer electoral votes. By contrast, Democratic-leaning states, like California and New York, hold large numbers of electoral votes giving Harris an advantage in the popular Democratic regions.

Pakistani Political Landscape

Current Regime and Imran Khan’s Struggle

Pakistan’s political climate is particularly volatile, with a ruling regime that has managed to consolidate power and curb the influence of PTI, the opposition party. Through strategic legal amendments, electoral maneuvering, and institutional control, the current government has tightened its grip on power. This regime has effectively sidelined the opposition, particularly Imran Khan’s PTI party, limiting their ability to impact policy or governance.

For Pakistan’s establishment, control over key institutions has been paramount. The recent appointment of judiciary heads and strategic extensions in military leadership reflect a comprehensive strategy to maintain influence. Many believe that this government’s success stems from strong alliances with powerful entities, both domestically and internationally.

The Hope for Change: Pakistan’s View on Trump’s Foreign Policy

Pakistan’s political alignment with U.S. administrations has long been a contentious issue. Many Pakistanis view Trump’s foreign policy stance as refreshingly isolationist compared to the Biden administration’s global approach. Trump’s “America First” policies, focused on reducing foreign involvement, resonate with those in Pakistan who desire less U.S. interference in their country’s affairs.

Trump’s previous administration focused on pulling back from foreign entanglements, including troop withdrawals from Iraq and Afghanistan. His stance on curtailing American military involvement appeals to Pakistanis, who hope that a Trump administration would focus on domestic issues rather than exerting influence abroad. For many Pakistanis, this would mean relief for Imran Khan, who has been vocal in his criticism of external interference.

Will Trump Win? The Election Projections

Polling data from reliable organizations like CNN and World of Statistics indicates a tight race. According to World of Statistics, Trump is polling at 59.9%, while Harris trails at 41.1% in key swing states. These swing states, where Trump currently has a slight advantage, may very well decide the outcome.

Survey results from states like North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Arizona show Trump leading by slim margins. However, the situation remains fluid, and voter turnout in the final hours could tip the scales. If Trump manages to secure victories in six of the seven swing states, he would comfortably exceed the required 270 electoral votes.

Kamala Harris: America’s Potential First Woman President

Kamala Harris is on the cusp of making history as America’s first female president. Her campaign emphasizes unity, progressive policies, and international cooperation. For Harris, the support of young, urban, and minority voters has been crucial in establishing a strong base in Democratic-leaning areas. Harris’s appeal to the more progressive segments of American society contrasts sharply with Trump’s base of conservative and rural voters.

Despite Harris’s strength in Democratic states, her path to victory heavily depends on swing-state support. While she currently has a slight lead in electoral projections, her campaign faces the challenge of energizing undecided voters in these battleground regions.

Conclusion: A Crucial Election with Global Repercussions

The 2024 U.S. presidential election is shaping up to be one of the most pivotal elections in recent history. With a global community watching closely, the results will impact not only America but also countries like Pakistan, where the outcome could influence local political dynamics.

For Pakistan, the hope that a Trump victory could shift U.S.-Pakistan relations is palpable. However, U.S. foreign policy changes slowly, often staying consistent regardless of administration. While a Trump presidency may hold symbolic significance for Pakistan’s opposition, substantial policy shifts are unlikely.

As the world awaits the final results, the election’s outcome remains uncertain. Will Kamala Harris break barriers as the first female president, or will Donald Trump return to the White House? Only time will tell. Regardless of the result, this election highlights the power of American politics to shape narratives far beyond its borders, reaffirming its position on the global stage.